Covering the Spread: Fact Checking

Hello again comic book investors and welcome back to Covering The Spread!  A while back I wrote an article talking about the cycle that I believed could be used to determine when you should be buying and selling a book.

But having theories is only a good thing if you can back that up.  So with that in mind I wanted to put a couple of books under the microscope to see how my theories hold up.

 

Avenging Spider-Man 9

This is a book that has been on an interesting roller coaster over the past year.  But despite some doubts, Captain Marvel appears to be a smash hit.  In the article I mentioned earlier I said that even if the Movie is a hit it would still be better to sell when the trailer drops.  So let’s look at some numbers and see how that holds up.

 

Average Raw Price 186.82
10 Copies 1868.20
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 319
Total Costs 2467.20

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
549 303 243 211
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
1098 909 972 211 3190

Well these numbers still look very good!  But we might need to dig a little deeper.  If you haven’t read before I generally use 12 months of sales data for graded books to get a nice overall picture of where graded comics will land.  However in the case of Captain Marvel the last year has all been prime time for the hype train.

Looking at only the last 3 months of graded sales shows the this book is actually on a downward trend.  Using the more recent sales takes about $200 in profits away, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment right now.  It merely suggests that my initial hypothesis was correct and that you would have been better off selling when the trailer hit about 5 months ago.

 

Ms Marvel 1

Okay we can’t just look at one book and draw a conclusion we need a little more evidence.  So here is another key related to the same movie.  I’ve heard a lot of people say that the reason for the price of Avenging Spider-Man 9 went down is because it should never have been the book people were investing in anyway.  This is the “real key” issue.  So let’s see what the numbers look like for this one.

 

Average Raw Price 174.69
10 Copies 1746.88
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 802.60
Total Costs 2829.48

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
2187 656 353 272
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
4374 1968 1412 272 8026

Holy smokes!  Okay, I know this book is very old.  There likely aren’t too many potential 9.8 copies out there, I know.  But as I always say with the prices that raw copies are selling for it’s well worth taking a chance!

With these numbers we expect an upfront investment of $2026.88 and profits of $5196.52.  That’s a spread of +519.65 and an ROI of 256 percent!  This looks like an amazing book to invest in right now, because I think the raw prices are far too low.

But that isn’t why we’re here today.  I want to determine if prices have indeed started to go down on this book.  The answer is a resounding YES.  So again it does look like my theory is correct and the best time to sell is when the trailer releases.  Although who knows what the future has in store for these books.

With the prices from the last 3 months for graded copies our profits go down to a measly $4491.82.  Still plenty of meat on the bone.

Wrap Up

Well everyone that’s all I have for you this week.  What do you all think about the future of Captain Marvel.  Is she still worth investing in?  Or does that all depend on what we see in Avengers: Endgame? Let me know down in the comments below!

The post Covering the Spread: Fact Checking appeared first on CBSI Comics.

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